With the world on edge over the shape of Israel's retaliation to Iran for recent ballistic missile assault, which just like in April was performative as it damaged absolutely nothing and killed just one person, a Palestinian, earlier we learned that Biden - who may or may not still be president - is opposing an attack on Iran's nuclear weapons sites, while also informing Iran not to attack its mid-east bases. And yet, Israel has to do something, which is why moments ago oil surged on news, that when Biden was asked by reporters outside the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, he said “we’re discussing that.”
Crude oil prices spiked on the news, jumping over 5%
Source: Bloomberg
Question is, did Biden "mis-speak" yet again?
Regardless, Biden is now boxed in. Either he puts taxpayer money where his diplomatic mouth is, and sides with Israel in attacking Iran, sending the price of oil and gas soaring and crushing Kamala's election odds, or confirm he is a puppet of the Iran regime, which should remain untouchable until the elections to keep oil prices lower, rising a unilateral attack by Israel anyway, demonstrating to the world just how irrelevant he has become.
For now, oil doesn't think he's senile and WTI is trading at one-month highs.
Finally, does this look like an economy that needed 50bps of rate-cuts and is priced for 75bps more bps this year?
US Macro Surprise data surged back into the positive overnight, to its highest in six months.
Presumably tomorrow's payrolls print will answer all questions clearly and unambiguously.
Meanwhile, USA sovereign risk continues to push quietly higher.
Is that the ultimate hedge for a Harris victory?
Have a good weekend
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