The Brutal Truth About Labor’s 2026 Budget

I’ve been patient since Grimm Jim’s Budget address on 12 May 2026. That patience has now run out.

If you bruise easily or don’t like hard talk (including a few well-placed F-bombs), then this video probably isn’t for you.

However, if you want the unfiltered truth about what this Budget really means for investors, business owners, and the Australian economy, I strongly encourage you to watch.

In this 33-minute video, I break down how this so-called “responsible” Budget actually locks in persistent deficits for the next five years, while Australia’s gross debt explodes past $1 Trillion and heads toward $1.25 Trillion by 2029–30.

Below is the projected outlook for the next 5 financial years based on the 2026–27 Budget papers:

• Persistent deficits every year over the next 5 years, with no return to surplus in sight.
• Cumulative deficits from 2025–26 to 2029–30: ≈ $150.5 billion.
• Gross debt rises from ~$982b to $1.25 trillion in just 4 years.
• Public debt interest is THE fastest growing expenses and is projected to approach $40–42 billion by 2029–30.
• The new CGT and negative gearing changes add only modest revenue (~$3.6b over the forward estimates) and do not materially improve the structural deficit.

Even worse, Albanese and Chalmers have delivered one of the biggest broken promises in recent memory by smashing Capital Gains Tax.

Under their changes, Australia becomes the 4th highest CGT taxing nation in the OECD. When you factor in our high marginal tax rates (up to 47%), we actually become the highest capital gains taxing country in the entire OECD.

Australia's New Position in the OECD

• Pre-change (50% CGT discount): Mid-pack ranking — roughly 14th to 17th out of 38 OECD countries. Effective top rate ~23.5%.
• Post-proposed changes: Jumps to the top 4 (among the highest-taxing nations) for many investors, especially mid-to-high earners.

Top OECD Countries by Effective Top CGT Rate on Long-Term Gains (2026 Context)

1. Denmark — ~42% (highest).
2. Norway — ~37.8%.
3. Netherlands — ~36%.
4. Australia (proposed) — 30% minimum floor up to ~47% at the top marginal rate on real (inflation-adjusted) gains. The 30% floor alone exceeds the full headline rate in most other OECD countries.
5. France — ~34–36%.
6. Finland / Ireland — ~33–34%.

Lower / Preferential Regimes (Much More Competitive)

• United States: 0–20% federal long-term + 3.8% NIIT (top ~23–28% with states).
• United Kingdom: 10–20%.
• Canada: ~20–27% effective (50% inclusion).
• Germany: Often ~26.4% flat on shares.
• Malaysia: 24%
• New Zealand: 0% CGT.
• Switzerland: Often 0% on private shares.
• Singapore: 0% CGT

Below is a Top 10 list of major individual expenditure items for the 2026–27 Federal Budget, based on the detailed breakdowns I’ve compiled from the official Budget papers.

Top 10 Largest Expenditure Items (2026–27)

Key Observations

• Social Security & Welfare still dominates the top of the list (multiple items in the Top 10).
• Public debt interest is now firmly in the Top 5, highlighting the growing cost of past deficits.
• Public Debt Interest climbs into the Top 3, potentially even Top 2, as one of the fastest-growing items (projected to reach >$55 billion by 2029–30 and continue rising).
• Health-related items (Hospitals, Medicare, Aged Care, PBS) take up 4 of the Top 10.
• These top 10 items together account for a very large share of the $833.3 billion total expenses.

This isn’t just bad policy — it’s a direct attack on aspiration, investment, and wealth creation.

Click on the thumbnail below to watch the video.

Rgds

Andy

Disclaimer:

The views and opinions expressed in this video are entirely those of Andy (that’s me). They are not necessarily shared or endorsed by Confidential Daily… although I strongly suspect they probably are.

I did my best to be honest, accurate, and fully disclose everything. But let’s be real — I can’t guarantee I’m right.

Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot.
I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Enjoy the video.