ANDIKA BULLETin 22 AUG 2024

'Bad news' - a record 818,000 downward revision in payrolls - combined with a strongly 'dovish' bias to the FOMC Minutes sent rate-cut expectations soaring overnight.

How big is the 818,000 revision in context? As the chart below shows, the 2024 revision was the biggest in the past decade, and the second biggest on record, with just the 824K downward revision in 2009 just (barely) greater.

Regardless of the revised payrolls, the rate cut expectations of a guaranteed 25bps cut in Sept sparked early buying-panic in bonds, bitcoin, US stocks, and gold (but the US dollar and crude tumbled).

Finally, is Harris' honeymoon ending?

This could explain why Bitcoin had a nice run up overnight back over USD$61K

Meanwhile the Prediction markets are trending back towards Trump.

Happy Thursday!

This information contains unsolicited general information only, without regard to any individual’s investment objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific advice for any particular investor or trader. Investment in the stock market involves risk.

This information may not take into account your investment objectives or financial situation, and you should obtain advice based on your own individual circumstances before making an investment decision.

This information is made available to you by ANDIKA Pty Ltd ABN 41 117 403 326, a licensed securities and derivatives dealer (AFSL # 297069).