ANDIKA BULLETin 1 JUL 2024

First things first, the US market is starting to aggressively price in a Republican/Trump victory in November after Biden's Friday farce.

Goldman's 'Republican / Democrat' stock baskets (yes there is such as thing) massively outperformed Friday...

Meanwhile in basket case France, As expected, Le Pen's conservative (or in the world's of the Left media, "Far Right") National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's parliamentary election on Sunday, exit polls showed, but the final result will depend on several days of horsetrading before next week's run-off.

As for here in Australia, 11 JUL looms as a very important date for Ablo and Grimm Jim as that's when the ABS drops the JUNE quarter CPI data.

For those not playing along, 11 JULY is important because the monthly JUN 24 CPI print came in at 4% while the MAR24 Quarterly came in at 3.6%. If the JUN24 Quarter comes in higher than 3.6% I think the odds of the RBA hiking rates becomes alive option.

So be warned.

Finally, this chart never gets old, several bulge bracket US bank traders are starting to sound a little nervous. Who can blame them?

Which happens first, US10Y yield hits 4.5% or S&P 500 hits 6,000?

...or 3,500?

That's how far would stocks have to fall before the liquidity machines ramp back up!

Happy Monday!

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