China's Doom-Loop
The edge of recession has now progressed to a full-blown Chinese fire drill
This week has seen Senate and House of Representatives elections in the United States. Early results suggest that the vote will see the Republicans seize control of both the House and the Senate in a backlash against the performance by President Obama.
Over the years I have been taken to task for not embracing the Obama era. Many of my supposedly ‘conservative’ colleagues jumped on the Obama bandwagon and drank the ‘hope and change’ kool-aid. They even felt his Nobel Peace Prize, which was given only eight months after taking office, was justified!
Now it seems the American people have woken up to the politics of seeming rather than doing and it has placed President Obama as one of the most unpopular Presidents in recent history.
This sets up an interesting showdown for American politics in a couple of years’ time. The Democratic front runner is Hillary Clinton who said to a campaign rally last week:
“Don’t let anybody tell you it’s corporations and businesses that create jobs.
Clearly a vote for her is a vote for bigger government.
Regretfully, the Republican establishment seem to subscribe to the big government mantra too. There are some notable exceptions (like Rand Paul) but they are so far removed from the establishment they are regarded as mavericks and outsiders. I know how they feel.
That said, I believe that their time is coming; not just in America but across the world – including Australia.
I have written before about the disassociation between members of the voting public and the establishment parties. This will become even more resolute when the global economy turns down as a result of what I expect to be a sovereign debt crisis – possibly within the next 12 months or so.
Economic hardship is the leading cause of civil unrest and substantive political change. As the USA is arguably the best performing major economy in the world, should it experience a substantial decline the effect will be felt globally.
The key indicator will be the US dollar. As it rises, deflationary forces could be unleashed in the USA with little scope for government intervention.
Some decades ago, the Japanese experienced a similar effect and they are still dealing with the negative consequences today.
The implications of such eventualities will almost certainly be felt strongly in Australia. Our personal, corporate and public debt levels are simply too high should a downturn in the global economy eventuate.
The pressure will be to raise taxes to fund even more government spending. Experience demonstrates this is the wrong approach for government to take and yet it is almost always seen as the best way forward by those interested in perpetuating the status quo.
That’s where the ‘outsiders’ can offer a new direction. Not one of ‘hope and change’ but one of real political change.
Change that reaffirms a commitment to lower taxes, decentralised power, limited government and personal responsibility. Coincidently the same things I’ve been advocating for years now.
Perhaps some day in the not too distant future, the public will force more of my colleagues to actually take this commitment seriously. Only time will tell.
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