The China Syndrome
The Chinese desire to conquer Taiwan is a test of the Western Alliance. It is not a test they can afford to fail.
There are increasing tensions between China and Taiwan.
That means there are increasing tensions between China and the civilised world.
Just last weekend 77 Chinese military aircraft breached Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone. A further 52 aircraft, including nuclear capable bombers, did the same on Monday. It was a particularly visible show of force by China.
The Chinese Communists propaganda outfit The Global Times has reported that China will ‘fight to the death’ against Taiwan’s allies.
In an editorial, which indicated Chinese willingness to go to war with the West over Taiwan it stated:
“ Their fate is bound to be a catastrophe when they attempt to separate Taiwan from China. There is no force in the world whose will to ‘defend Taiwan’ is stronger than China’s will to fight against secession and achieve reunification.”
It went on.
"China dares to have a life-and-death fight against any force that hinders our reunification….But no force dares or is willing to fight to the death against the world's second-largest economy, as well as a nuclear power, in order to prevent China's reunification."
They certainly sound like fighting words.
Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot, is in Taiwan to deliver a key note speech where he met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen.
Abbot referred to Taiwan as a country , which is at odds with Australia’s official One China diplomatic protocol, and said he hoped his visit would help the international community to embrace the democratic island nation.
Abbot is quoted as saying:
“It is in large measure to try to help to end this isolation from which Taiwan has been suffering for so many decades that I am here in this country and I do hope that this will be the first of many visits.”
Now many military experts have predicted that the China-Taiwan situation could escalate into a hot war some time relatively soon. These include some of those most knowledgeable in this space including Sky News Catherine McGregor and Retired General Senator Jim Molan.
Few doubt that potential but the Taiwanese Foreign Minister Chiu Kuo-Cheng has said that China is not equipped to mount an invasion but it would be capable by 2025.
The rationale being that the hostile terrain and a 500k strong potential guerrilla force could inflict a debilitating ( and possible humiliating) defeat via a Vietnam style war.
From my perspective, that’s wishful thinking.
The Chinese Army and their communist dictators are as brutal a force as any ever seen. They have the weaponry and personnel but more importantly they care nothing for conventions or human life.
Remember, this is a country already committing genocide and enslaving groups of their own people. Laying waste to Taiwan and all her citizens will not trouble their sleep at all.
That said, the real question in my mind is what will the West do if China does invade?
Will we really go to war over an island that was once part of China?
Let’s recall that it was only seven years ago that Russia invaded the Ukraine and seized back the Crimean peninsula while the world sat back and did nothing except wag its finger and say some stern words. Even when Russian forces shot down a commercial passenger plane there were only diplomatic repercussions.
And when you look around the western alliance, it's easy to understand why China fancies its chances.
New Zealand are bought and paid for by the Chinese. Canada is run by a woke tosser who seems to loathe western civilisation. The UK is a great ally but not nearly powerful enough.
And Australia? Well we are a great ally too and have some of the finest troops in the world but we are woefully incapable of defending ourself let alone another country.
That leaves the war weary United States, led by a dementia ridden POTUS whose family has grown rich on Chinese appeasement.
The only reason the Chinese are posturing up against Taiwan at this point is because they know they have Biden’s measure.
Heck, even US General Milley offered to tip the Chinese off if Donald Trump decided to do something in the final days of his Presidency.. That suggests the Chinese have powerful friends throughout the US government, not just within the Biden family.
Beijing know that with Biden as Commander in Chief, they have an opportunity to seize Taiwan like Russia did the Crimean Peninsula. Preventing that from happening will depend on how seriously China takes the jawboning of the USA and their allies.
In the event that China did take Taiwan with little recourse, that would have profound implications for our own security and safety.