Real or Contrived

The dangers of the battle in the Middle East are very real, but questions surround the intentions of some of the players.

Real or Contrived
Photo by Clark Gu / Unsplash

The Iranian attack on Israel was very real.

There's no disputing the drones and rockets fired toward the Jewish State by their avowed enemies. However, there was something surreal about the entire thing, too.

I can't recall a war where an attack was so widely telegraphed so far in advance.

Iran issued a NOTAM no-fly zone for “rocket launches within area” between 10 April at 3:30 am and 12 April at 10:30 am.

Here's the formal announcement, which basically tells the world when and how to expect what's to come.


Having pondered why the Iranians would do such a thing, I have settled on two theories while eliminating another.

I've ruled out that the Iranians didn't want to endanger innocent lives.

They are one of the world's largest sponsors of terrorism and don't give a hoot about the innocents.

That left me with these two scenarios.

Firstly, letting the world know what was coming and when let the might of the West assemble some defensive positions to intercept the incoming missiles and drones.

This ensured the damage done by the attacks was minimal, thereby removing the guarantee of reprisals while allowing Iran to 'save face'.

That theory is supported by the slow-moving nature of the drones despatched by Iran. They took hours to get close to Israel, and most (if not all) were reported as being destroyed en route by the American forces.

That then takes me to theory number two.

That is along the lines of this was merely the first sortie of the Iranian attack and was used as a means of identifying the scale and capability of the defences despatched to protect Israel.

Some pundits reckon that the West's missile defences cost many multiples of the drones lost and critically diminished the future armaments available to Israel and her allies.

That suggests a further attack can be expected, most likely after Israel seeks to respond to the most recent aggression.

Of course, I don't know if any of my theories about this particular event are correct, but everything plays into my notion that chaos lies ahead.

The epicentre of the world's problems appears to be America. Whoever is pulling the strings there seems intent on inflaming global tensions rather than reducing them.

I can only conclude that this is for political reasons, supported by the sudden plunge in money on Biden winning re-election.

It's a timely reminder that no US President has lost re-election while the country has been at war.

Betting markets see Biden’s re-election as likelier than a Trump win for first time in 6 months

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