ANDIKA BULLETin 9 AUG 2024

a microscopic improvement in (the incredibly noisy) initial jobless claims was all it took to enable the A.I. machines to run US stocks higher, bond yields followed suit (higher) along with another ugly auctions (30Y). Crude, bitcoin, and gold also rallied (despite the US dollar being basically flat).

For some context on the size of the labor market 'surprise' in the overnightclaims data... you need to look really hard...

Nasdaq was the day's best performer (best day since Feb 2023) and the S&P's gain was the best day since Nov 2022...

The ASX200 is expected to open up 76 pts higher...

Gold rallied back above USD$2,400...

Oil prices extended their rebound today (erasing the payrolls plunge) as tensions in Ukraine and the MidEast picked up once again...

Bitcoin ripped higher today, touching USD$60,000 and erasing the Jump-Trading liquidation from Sunday night...

Finally, as we noted earlier, the rise in rates led to the implied odds of a US recession jumping much higher. But in the UK and Europe they are still relatively low.

The question is - how long can that divergence remain? Either US odds have to decline or UK and EU recession odds have to rise.

Ponder that over the weekend!

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