ANDIKA BULLETin 6 NOV 2024

The RBA governor made it clear on yesterday that there is no sympathy rate cut in the works. Just because our retailers (WOW for example) and their investors are downgrading earnings forecasts and just because the United States is likely to cut its benchmark rate again later this week is not enough.

The RBA will continue to sit on its hands, even though yesterday marks one year since its last rate move. Borrowers who have kept their heads above water though 13 rate rises since 2022 will have to keep paddling furiously for a while yet.

To the US mkts.

Stocks up, Bonds (prices) up, Gold up, Bitcoin up, Crude up... VIX & Dollar down... as ISM Services soars on Election Day.

Traders should not be surprised - They haven't had a down-day on election day for the S&P 500 since 2000

with the US election almost over, traders will turn to Thursday's shenanigans with The Fed which have seen rate cut expectations slump again (50-50 chance of 1 or 2 cuts in 2024 and 50-50 chance of 2 or 3 cuts more in 2025).

Re the US election. For those who want to follow the race this is all you need to know.

Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are the pivotal 7 swing states with Pennsylvania arguably the most pivotal. Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia are the ‘Sun Belt’ states and if Trump wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many more. If Trump wins these three states, he’d be on a path to 262 electoral votes, meaning he’d only have to take one of the blue-wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin) to win the White House.

Happy Wednesday

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