ANDIKA BULLETin 30 APR 2024

Overnight was a quiet micro and macro trading day that was dominated by Treasury's QRA news (which spoiled all the fun by coming in less than some hyperbolic expectations), and Japanese intervention the FX markets.

First to the QRA or Quarterly Refunding Announcement which is the US Treasuries borrowing estimates for the next two quarters came in at the high end of forecasts.

• Q2 funding needs were revised higher to $243 billion (just above the upper end of our range of $240 billion) from $202 billion projected last quarter.  According to the Treasury, the borrowing estimate was "$41 billion higher than announced in January 2024, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of quarter cash balance."
• Q3 funding needs (released for the first time) were estimated at $847 billion, just below the upper end of our range of $850BN.

The real question should be not what the Treasury projects for Q2 and Q3, but Q4, which is after the election, and when all the lipstick on this pig will finally wash off.

So after any QRA anxiety faded US Stonks posted minor gains.

Gold was down a little, Oil was flat and Bitcoin was back up to USD$64k

We now await the Fed's rate statement due Thursday our time. 98% chance of no rate change in the US. Mkts will be noting the hawkish or dovish tone of Fed Chair Powell.

Happy Tuesday!

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