ANDIKA BULLETin 16 APR 2024

ASX preview: ASX 200 futures down 63 pts

It was all looking so shiny and BTFD-y - Iran had sent some missiles towards Israeli folks; 'allies' blocked 99% of them; and Israel appeared unlikely top respond 'imminently'. Stocks were up, crypto was up, oil was down as 'WW3-off' meant risk-on.

But, then the headlines just kept coming from the MidEast, reigniting fears that things were about to escalate quickly once again, sending oil, gold, and the US dollar roaring higher.

Add to that the fact that 2Y yields surged up towards 5.00% (after strong nominal retail sales) and 'risk-off' rapidly spoiled the overnight dip-buyers' fun.

Specifically, 5.00% has not been a fun place for S&P 500 multiples in the last couple of years...

...and it appears the same it true for now with the majors reversing solid early gains into serious weakness as the day unfolded. Nasdaq 100 was the day's biggest loser, swinging from almost 1% gains to 1.5% losses by the close...

Meanwhile The US dollar roared back up to its highest since Nov 13th - this is the biggest 4-day gain since early Feb 2023...

Crypto continued its roller-coaster ride, surging overnight (HK BTC ETFs?) back up to USD$67,000 (erasing the weekend's plunge on the Iran attack on Israel) and then falling in line with Nasdaq as the equity selloff accelerated.

If you are an American the 16 APR is the last day to file your taxes. Usually after the 16th the SP500 has a run up. Here's the chart with 39yrs worth of data supporting this.

But it could be different this time.

Happy Tuesday!

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