America, Alone?

There was a significant shift in international relations this week as French President Emmanuel Macron met President Xi of China.

Macron has a raft of domestic issues to deal with but still went to China to meet with the Dictator of the world's most populous nation.

Macron can clearly sense a profound geo-political realignment underway and doesn't want to be left behind.

He said as much after the meeting, sparking outrage among the political class for suggesting Europe should reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting involved in any conflict between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan.

I also detect it was also a subtle signal that French support for the war in Ukraine is waning fast.

Here's part of what he said:

“The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the US agenda and a Chinese overreaction.

Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘Watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’?

If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it,”

It's fair to say that the French have never been the most reliable of battle partners.

They have developed a reputation as 'surrender monkeys' after all.

That said, they are an important part of the global Western alliance and a particularly important voice in Europe and to NATO.

In this instance, I happen to agree with Macron.

And no, that doesn't mean I am a fan of the Chinese state, it's just that I don't see the United States as the good guy in any battle either.

What the US has done in Ukraine is almost unforgivable. They were instrumental in a coup in 2014, committed an act of war by blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline, have funnelled tens of billions of dollars in cash, arms and munitions to fuel a proxy war that they provoked.

That statement doesn't justify Putin's invasion but I'd lay London to a brick it would never have happened if not for the interference of the US in Ukrainian politics.

In any event, what's done is done and now the world needs to find a way out of this mess.

More and more nations are seeing the answer lie outside of the US sphere of influence.

The drift toward the Chinese alignment is notable. The most resource rich nations in the world are moving away from US dollar settlements and are now open to trade in Yuan.

If this de-dollarisation continues, it will weaken the US global power even more than their diminished military capability.

I expect it will continue and China will become the financial centre of the world within a decade.

I can also foresee China moving to reintegrate Taiwan much sooner than that.

The US has pledged to defend Taiwan with the full might of its military but I doubt that many other nations have that appetite. Clearly the French President doesn't and that voice will carry weight across Europe.

So who would join the United States in a battle over Taiwan?

England may decide to lend support but what about the rest of the Anglosphere? New Zealand are not much chop, Canada too woke.

That leaves Australia in a terrible position.

Not to join our longest, most powerful ally would be seen as a betrayal but to join them would be a folly.

We have neither the manpower nor the equipment for such a battle.

I seriously doubt whether the Australian people have any appetite to send our sons and daughters off to war in such a circumstance.

It really leaves the US on their own and one must question their ability to sustain a real war and a proxy war. It may be that the American citizens also have no desire for yet another battle which will only result in more bodybags.

The Chinese will have much more in depth insights into military capabilities and expected responses in the event they move to take Taiwan.

However, the response of Macron to just a few days of diplomatic duchessing must give them a growing confidence that many others may choose to sit this likely next conflict out too.