A One Nation Defection After Farrer?

The political class might soon realise that the Farrer earthquake might not be a one-off.

Because now they have a new problem.

Flynn MP Colin Boyce is publicly flirting with defecting to One Nation.

Boyce is not some fringe nobody. He is exactly the type of regional conservative MP the Nationals rely upon to survive. A blunt-speaking Queensland MP with strong support across regional communities, deep scepticism toward net zero ideology and a long history of frustration with the direction of the Coalition.

And now, after One Nation’s stunning victory in the Farrer by-election, Boyce is openly signalling he may no longer see his future inside the Nationals at all.

This is a shame because new Nationals leader Matt Canavan is trying desperately to turn the ship around but he is surrounded by modern Liberals in Akubras such as his deputy Darren Chester.

Speaking to The Guardian after David Farley’s victory, Boyce described the result as a “wake-up call”.

“The reality of what has happened last night has to be put into perspective: so approximately 40% primary vote in the Farrer byelection [was] for One Nation, so the big question is, what does that look like in central Queensland?” Boyce said.

“I would argue if you’re Pauline Hanson, it’s a lot easier to campaign in Rockhampton than it is in Albury.”

When directly asked whether he was considering shifting to One Nation, Boyce hardly shut the speculation down.

“I consider a lot of things,” he replied.

“At this point in time, I’m a member of the National party – that’s Sunday morning, whatever the date is today.”

And then came the line that should deeply alarm Coalition strategists everywhere.

“Absolutely. And I think everybody should be thinking about their political future, particularly the people who are the organisers in the hierarchy. If this isn’t a wake-up call for conservative politics, what is?”

That sentence should sound very familiar to some of us.

Because this did not suddenly appear out of nowhere after Farrer. The conditions for this political realignment have been building for years. Some of us warned the Coalition repeatedly that conservative voters were becoming alienated long before Canberra took the threat seriously.

Back in September 2015, immediately after Malcolm Turnbull rolled Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party accelerated toward metropolitan centrism, The Australian ran a piece examining growing conservative unrest inside Coalition ranks.

At the time, most of the political establishment dismissed the idea that conservative voters would ever seriously abandon the Coalition in large numbers. Strategists insisted disgruntled conservatives “didn’t matter”. Academic commentators claimed voters in marginal seats were not interested in insurgent conservative politics.

I argued the opposite.

The article noted my warning that rumblings within conservative ranks over the leadership change showed exactly why the Coalition needed a strong voice representing disillusioned conservatives.

What many in Canberra failed to understand back then was that this constituency was not disappearing. It was growing.

For years, millions of conservative Australians watched the Coalition drift further away from them on migration, energy, cultural issues and national identity. They watched Liberal strategists chase inner-city progressives while taking regional and working Australians for granted. They watched conservative voters mocked as embarrassing relics whenever they pushed back against elite consensus.

And now the political consequences are arriving.

Official Australian Electoral Commission figures now show One Nation’s David Farley sitting on 57.42 per cent of the preferred vote in yesterday’s Farrer by-election with postals still outstanding. But the seat is gone. A seat the Liberals and Nationals had held forever has fallen to One Nation.

Suddenly the internal Coalition panic is no longer theoretical. Once sitting MPs themselves begin wondering whether the populist insurgency has become the real conservative movement, the entire political landscape starts shifting very quickly.

For years, Coalition strategists comforted themselves with the belief that One Nation support was temporary. A protest movement. A pressure valve. Something voters flirted with before eventually returning “home” to the Coalition at election time.

Farrer shattered that illusion.

And now Coalition MPs are looking at their own electorates and quietly asking themselves deeply uncomfortable questions.

If One Nation can destroy the Coalition in Farrer, why not Flynn? Why not Capricornia? Why not Maranoa? Why not seats right across regional Queensland where frustration over energy policy, migration, cost of living and cultural issues has been building for years?

Boyce understands that danger because he lives inside it politically every day.

This is a man who already challenged David Littleproud for Nationals leadership earlier this year after warning the party risked “political suicide” if it kept drifting away from its base. He has repeatedly attacked net zero policies, criticised Coalition softness and positioned himself as one of the few Nationals willing to openly confront the growing anger in regional Australia.

And now, after Farrer, he can see the same thing many conservative voters now see.The old political loyalties are collapsing.

What makes this especially dangerous for the Coalition is that the demographic changes are accelerating. The Nationals once relied heavily on inherited voting patterns across rural Australia. Families voted Country Party, then Nationals, because that was simply what regional conservative families did.

But that inheritance system is breaking down.

Younger working-age regional voters no longer possess the same emotional attachment to the Coalition brand. Many see the Liberals and Nationals as managerial, cautious and increasingly disconnected from the pressures facing ordinary Australians. Housing affordability is collapsing. Power prices keep climbing. Infrastructure strains under rapid population growth. Regional communities feel neglected while inner-city priorities dominate national politics.

And increasingly, voters are looking for parties willing to fight rather than simply manage decline politely.

That is why One Nation is becoming so dangerous electorally.

Not because every voter agrees with every policy. Not because Pauline Hanson suddenly became universally popular. But because millions of Australians increasingly view One Nation as one of the few parties still willing to openly challenge the political consensus on migration, energy, national identity and sovereignty.

The Coalition still does not fully understand how serious this is.

Many inside Canberra continue treating One Nation as an irritant rather than recognising it may now be evolving into the nucleus of a broader conservative realignment. But when sitting Coalition MPs begin publicly entertaining defection after a single by-election result, that tells you the fear inside the system is becoming very real.

And if Colin Boyce ever actually defected to One Nation? Like Barnaby Joyce’s defection, it would not simply or easily be dismissed as the actions of a rat, given both Joyce and Boyce are quintessential National Party MPs.

It would be interpreted by many conservative voters as confirmation that the centre of gravity on the Australian Right is moving.

Very fast.

Until next time,

“You Are Never Too Old To Set Another Goal Or To Dream A New Dream.”
– C.S. Lewis