Here’s my prediction for Australian politics in 2026: It won’t be marked by dramatic reform or bold leadership. It will be shaped by drift, denial, and the slow accumulation of pressures on the citizenry that politicians and the elite insist are temporary, even as they become permanent features of daily life.
To get to the specifics, here is what is most likely to define the year ahead:
1. Everything Costs More and Everyone Is “Very Concerned”
Cost-of-living pressures will remain the single most important political issue because nothing meaningful has been done to fix them. Electricity, rent, groceries, insurance, and interest rates will continue to climb. Governments will acknowledge the pain, announce rebates, and insist Australians would be worse off without their steady hand, while carefully avoiding any structural reform that might upset entrenched interests.
2. As the Economy Tanks, It Will Be All About the Vibe, Not Numbers
The government’s preferred currency will remain empathy. Australians will hear plenty about fairness, decency, and lived experience. What they won’t hear much about is productivity, wages growth, or measurable improvements in service delivery. The gap between rhetoric and reality will continue to widen, quietly, but corrosively.
Despite occasional lip service to “capacity” and “planning,” immigration levels will stay historically elevated. Housing supply will continue to lag demand. Infrastructure and services will creak under the strain. Leaders will acknowledge the problem while while treating migration settings as effectively untouchable and insisting there’s no viable alternative.
4. Net Zero Is Sacred But Your Power Bill Isn‘t
Energy policy will remain anchored to emissions targets rather than affordability or reliability. Electricity costs will remain volatile and stubbornly high. Governments will deny any link between policy choices and household pain, or frame it as “short-term pain” that is necessary for long-term salvation.
5. Free Speech Still Exists… It Just Needs “Guardrails”
There won’t be dramatic censorship laws, or overt bans. Instead, speech will be constrained through regulators, platform obligations, “misinformation” codes, and administrative pressure. The effect will be the same: a narrower public square, fewer permissible opinions, and a growing class of topics best avoided.
All of it will be justified as protection from harm, from hate, from disorder, with remarkably little parliamentary scrutiny of what is being lost in the process.
6. The Opposition Decides Not to Be an Opposition
Under the leadership of Sussan Ley and David Littleproud, the Coalition’s strategy will be unmistakable: say as little as possible, offend no one important, and hope government failure does the work for them. Bold positions on migration, taxation, free speech, or institutional overreach will be avoided in favour of “responsible” ambiguity.
This may reduce negative headlines, but it leaves voters with a problem: if the Opposition won’t articulate what it stands for, it becomes indistinguishable from what it claims to oppose. Elections aren’t won by default, and politics without conviction rarely survives first contact with a frustrated electorate.
7. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Is Surging and That Matters
For years, commentators have confidently predicted One Nation’s demise. In 2026, those predictions look increasingly absurd. Hanson’s party is polling at the highest levels it has ever recorded, drawing support from voters who believe the major parties have abandoned concerns about migration, social cohesion, and national sovereignty.
This is a structural shift in Australian politics, forcing major parties to rethink everything from immigration and culture to national security.
Senate arithmetic ensures One Nation will remain influential, while its growing primary vote sends a clear message: a significant slice of the electorate no longer trusts the political class to even acknowledge (let alone address) their concerns.
8. Bondi Forces the Question Politicians Don’t Want Asked
The Islamist terror attack at Bondi Beach in December has become a defining fault line in Australian politics. As details emerged about warning signs, policing failures, and ideological blind spots, calls for a Commonwealth Royal Commission have grown louder and harder to dismiss.
Families of victims, senior security figures, and community leaders are demanding answers about radicalisation, border policy, and the reluctance of authorities to confront uncomfortable truths. The government’s preference for limited reviews and bureaucratic processes may buy time, but it risks deepening public anger over a sense that accountability is being carefully managed or deliberately avoided.
9. Big Government Gets Bigger… For Your Good, Of Course!
Under Labor, the size and scope of government will continue to expand in every direction. More spending, more programs, more departments, more regulation, all justified as necessary responses to crisis, inequality, or “complexity.” What won’t expand is the capacity of the economy to carry it.
Intervention will be framed as care. Control will be sold as protection. And every failure of policy will become the rationale for another layer of government, another rule, another cost imposed on households and businesses already stretched thin.
10. Trust in Institutions Declines and Alternative Media Keeps Booming
Confidence in politicians, mainstream media, and bureaucratic institutions will continue its long decline. Australians increasingly turn to independent outlets and direct online voices to make sense of events.
The result will be a fragmented national conversation that is less deferential, less controlled, and far harder for governments to manage.
The Likely Shape of 2026?
As I said, Australian politics in 2026 will be defined not by sudden shocks, but by slow realisation. Household pressures will intensify. The space for open debate will narrow. And the distance between official narratives and lived experience will continue to grow, quietly, persistently, and dangerously.
Thought for the Day
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and hence clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. – H.L. Mencken
I’m a journalist, former politician, Christian, and campaign director for CitizenGO Australia. My mission is to challenge the media lies, government overreach, and corporate censorship that threaten our freedoms.
