Libs Finished, One Nation Takes Over

Editor's Note: This special rushed report first appeared at NationFirst.com.au

What happens when a political party doesn’t just lose votes… but loses its place in the system?

You are watching it happen in real time.

The 2026 South Australian election is not just another swing. It is the collapse of the Liberal Party as the dominant force on the right and the emergence of One Nation as its replacement.

And the numbers prove it.

Statewide, One Nation is polling above the Liberals, something once considered unthinkable. Pre-election polling already showed One Nation at around 22% compared to the Liberals at 19%, confirming a historic shift in voter sentiment. Tonight, on election night, that trend held.

More importantly, One Nation is outpolling the Liberals in 31 of 47 seats. That’s more a replacement vote than a protest vote. The Liberal Party is not suffering a bad night. It is suffering a structural collapse. Its primary vote has fallen by double digits. Its base has fractured. Its identity is gone. Even establishment figures are conceding the scale of the disaster, with senior voices describing this as the worst Liberal performance in memory. This has gone down because voters have had enough.

Disillusionment with the major parties is now the dominant force in Australian politics. One Nation’s surge has been driven heavily by voters who say they no longer trust the political establishment, particularly on cost of living, immigration, and basic service delivery. This is not fringe sentiment anymore. It is mainstream.

But here is the twist. Despite this surge, One Nation is not yet converting votes into seats. Why? Because the system is still trying to protect the old order.

In seat after seat, the Liberals are clinging on not because they are strong, but because of preference flows and the order of exclusion. Labor preferences and minor party flows are keeping Liberals alive long enough to stay competitive, even as their primary vote collapses. That is the only thing standing between One Nation and a breakthrough.

And now comes the part almost no one is talking about. South Australia has a little-known feature in its electoral system: The vote savings provision. This provision allows ballots that would normally be informal, whereby a voter simply marks “1” alongside one party, to still be counted if the voter’s intent is clear and a valid preference structure exists via a party-supplied preference ticket registered with the electoral commission.

One Nation encouraged voters to vote “1” and then number as they wished. Many voters appear to have stopped at “1”. Ordinarily, that would cost votes. But not necessarily here. Because One Nation has lodged the required registered ticket, those ballots can be rescued and added back into the count. And that changes everything.

In tight seats, the margin between One Nation and the Liberals is razor-thin. If even a small number of these “1-only” votes are recovered, then One Nation’s primary vote rises, and the Liberals fall behind. Suddenly, Liberal vs Labor becomes One Nation vs Labor; a complete rewiring of the contest.

This is why election night is not the end of the story. Over the coming days, as votes are scrutinised and counted properly, some seats that appear safely Liberal could become genuine One Nation contests. And if One Nation makes it into second place in terms of seats, the entire electoral equation flips.

What we are witnessing is the beginning of something much bigger than a single election result. It is the end of the Liberal Party’s dominance on the right. And the rise of a new political force that speaks to voters the old parties stopped listening to long ago.

In seat after seat across South Australia, One Nation is no longer the outsider. It is the preferred party of the right.

“It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.”
― Dan Cook